This paper investigates the relationship between institutions and economic development (output per worker). As in Hall and Jones (1999), we find that a 1% improvement in institutions (as we measure them) generates on average a 5% increase in output per worker. However, this relationship is not...

We probe the idea that the 1992 currency crisis that affected several European countries was a contagious phenomenon. Using "spatial probit" models, we show that the currency crisis was indeed contagious, with the trade channel favored as the transmission channel. We also test the political...

Since 1996 the Bank of England (BoE) has been publishing estimates of probability distribution of the future outcomes of inflation and output growth. These density forecasts, known as "fan charts", became very popular with other central banks (e.g. Riskbank) as a tool to quantify uncertainties...