Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri - Fachbereich Sozialökonomie, Universität Hamburg - 2009
disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP …, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (in ation and interest … rate). Disagreement about real variables intensifes strongly during recessions, including the current one (by about 40 …