This paper studies the global trade and financial market integration of the countries in Eastern Europe. The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European...

It is often argued that fiscal stabilisation in the euro area compares unfavourably with the US, not least because of the perceived limitations of the Stability and Growth Pact. This paper qualifies this perception by taking a closer look at fiscal policy making since the mid-1990s. It examines...

This paper assesses the relevance of the competitiveness argument in the debate on the current situation of the Spanish economy. We estimate error-correction models for exports and imports. Econometric analyses suggest that external demand and domestic activity are the more important...

After summarising briefly the national development gap of the CEECs relative to the EU (section 2), a more comprehensive view is taken on the CEECs' regions (section 3). Section 4 presents some theoretical considerations on whether priority should be given to national or to regional development...

Stochastic projections are a powerful tool to feature uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions into the analysis of public debt dynamics. They allow simulating a very large number of debt paths, corresponding to as many shock constellations to the non-fiscal determinants of debt evolution (short-...

This paper uses a two region DSGE model for the Euro area (periphery vs. core), to analyse the costs of higher sovereign risk premia, the so called 'sovereign risk channel'. We highlight the importance of valuation effects of sovereign bonds in bank balance sheets for the transmission of...

The cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) is the backbone of the EU framework of fiscal surveillance, both in its preventive and corrective arms. The concept corresponds to the budget balance prevailing if the economy was running at potential. After correcting for the one-off and temporary...

Measures aimed at reducing the tax burden on labour have been advocated to alleviate the EU unemployment problem. Most of the analyses document a relationship between the unemployment rate and the tax burden on labour. Hence, it is not possible to discern whether the effect on unemployment...

This paper introduces a statistical model for short-term GDP forecasting based on approximate dynamic factors, Stock and Watson methodology, extracted from a very large number of leading indicators at several lags. Given that factor extraction is performed on many series from all countries of...

This paper examines the proposed EU-GCC FTA, a free trade agreement (FTA) between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Counil (GCC), which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The paper first takes a fresh look at the methodology generally applied to...