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Individual Behavior and Collective Action: The Path to Iceland's Financial Collapse

Gylfason, Thorvaldur; Zoega, Gylfi - 2019

Unsustainable accumulation of debt precedes financial crises. The recent Western financial crisis was no exception in this regard. The external debt of Greece, Iceland, Ireland, and Spain increased exponentially, in Iceland at a rate higher than the rate of interest on foreign debt. The Ponzi...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141075

Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571

International propagation of financial shocks in a search and matching environment

Isoré, Marlène - 2011 - First draft: April 30, 2010, This version: April 13, 2011

This paper develops a two-country multi-frictional model where the freeze on liquidity access to commercial banks in …. Second, it allows dissociating pure liquidity contractions from non-walrasian financial shocks, arriving despite global …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346436

Going to extremes : politics after financial crisis, 1870 - 2014

Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015

Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349087

Cross-border liquidity, relationships and monetary policy : evidence from the Euro area interbank crisis

Abbassi, Puriya; Bräuning, Falk; Fecht, Falko; … - 2014 - This version: November 2014

We analyze the impact of financial crises and monetary policy on the supply of wholesale funding liquidity, and also on … on interbank access and volume is stronger than on spreads. Liquidity supply restrictions are exacerbated for cross … price dispersion substantially decreases when the Eurosystem promises unlimited access to liquidity at a fixed price in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471858

Political booms, financial crises

Herrera, Helios; Ordoñez, Guillermo; Trebesch, Christoph - 2014

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010398976

The great mortgaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412763

Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction : evidence from a machine learning approach

Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; … - 2021

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396

Financialization in emerging Europe

Kazandziska, Milka - 2022

This paper contributes to the financialization literature exploring the dynamics of financialization in eight emerging European economies (EEEs) compared to the Anglo-Saxon countries. Our analysis encompasses the decade before and the years following the financial crisis in 2008, including the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013254498

Tackling the volatility paradox: spillover persistence and systemic risk

Kubitza, Christian - 2021 - This version: April 13, 2021

This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by exploring a novel dimension of systemic risk: loss...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499703