Statistical inference in nested linear models that result from linear restrictions on the parameters of encompassing linear models can be considered to result from the conditional distribution under the encompassing model. We extend this reasoning to nested models that result from general...

Many common statistical models can be specified as linear models with restrictions imposed on the parameters. A large amount of these models impose restrictions which do not allow for the analytical construction of the probability density function (pdf) of the parameters given the restrictions....

We consider representation, estimation and inference on cointegration in a (PVAR). We show that cointegration amounts to a restriction on a product of parameter matrices. We therefore use GMM to construct estimators of the long-run (cointegration) parameters and to obtain test statistics for...

We construct limiting and small sample distributions of maximum likelihood estimators (mle) from the property that they satisfy the first order condition (foc). The foc relates the mle of the analyzed model to the mle of an encompassing model and shows that the mle of the analyzed model is a...

We present a road map for effective application of Bayesian analysis of a class of well-known dynamic econometric models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm. Members belonging to this class are the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root...

A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the "Great Ratios" in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated, together with the presence and e¤ects of permanent...

Economic forecasts and policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on econometric models. However, inference based upon a single model, when several viable models exist, limits its usefulness. Taking account of model uncertainty, a Bayesian model averaging procedure is...

Bartlett's paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, preventing model comparison in this case. We use well understood principles underlying what is already common practice, to demonstrate that this implication is not true for...

Several frequentist and Bayesian model averaging schemes, including a new one that simultaneously allows for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy over a set of simulation experiments. Artificial data are generated,...

Jan Tinbergen was the first Nobel Laureate in Economics in 1969. This paper presents a brief survey of his many contributions to economics, in particular to macro-econometric modelling, business cycle analysis, economic policy making, development economics, income distribution, international...