This paper constructs a theoretical model to show how the credibility of a country s commitment to an international gold standard regime is driven by fundamental determinants such as: 1) shifts in domestic policy, 2) a breakdown in cooperation between central banks, and 3) unilateral...

In this paper we adopt the Hungarian version of the EAGLE (Euro Area GLobal Economy) model. The version of the EAGLE model used in this paper allows for the high import content of export - a typical feature of small open economies such as Hungary. We study the effects of four globally important...

We estimate international spillover effects of US Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a Bayesian VAR on monthly US macroeconomic and financial data, we first identify the US QE shock. The identified US QE shock is then used in a monthly Bayesian panel VAR for EMEs...

During the last two decades, the world has experienced a remarkable process of disinflation, with average inflation rates in industrialized countries falling by 10 percentage points and an even sharper decline of the mean rate of inflation in developing countries. Parallel to the decline in...

Few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy after the shift of Japan from a fixed to a...

The argument put forward in this paper is twofold: first, that the financial crisis of 2007/08 was made global by the U.S. current account deficit. This is because the outflow of dollars from the United States was invested in U.S. capital markets, causing inflation in asset markets and leading...

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics in target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' expectation formation about the undisclosed band change as they learn...

Capital flight has characterized the transformation process in Russia. Inflows of foreign direct investment have been minor and have been preceeded by inflows of portfolio capital. The paper shows that uncertainty about macroeconomic stabilization exhibits a strong negative effect on the volume...

Recent literature has argued that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into domestic inflation has been declining in many countries following a dramatic change in inflation environment during the 1990s. Available empirical results face two central challenges: (i) the evidence on declining ERPT is...

An Econometric Investigation of Currency Substitution and Capital Mobility in a Two-Country Portfolio-Balance Financial Asset Model This paper examines the extent to which the demand for money in the euro area responds to external economic developments. The euro area money demand is derived from...