With the global economy still in recession, two important questions arise for Asia: how soon will the recession end, and how vigorous will the region's recovery be? The purpose of this paper is to look at past recessions and recoveries in Asia in order to shed light on these issues. Several...

With the global economy still in recession, two important questions arise for Asia: how soon will the recession end, and how vigorous will the region's recovery be? The purpose of this paper is to look at past recessions and recoveries in Asia in order to shed light on these issues. Several...

During the first half of 2008, Sri Lanka witnessed significantly higher inflation than most other emerging Asian countries. Inflation has since declined amid declining world commodity prices and tight monetary policy. Given the sensitivity to global commodity prices, a core inflation measure...

I study the implications of productivity shocks in a model where agents observe the aggregate level of productivity but not its permanent and transitory components separately. The model''s predictions under learning differ substantially from those under full information and are in line with...

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data...

Asia is at the forefront of the digital revolution, which promises a radical transformation of the global economy, and indeed of society itself, while at the same time threatening substantial disruptions and dislocation. For instance, workers worry that robots will make them obsolete, while...

During the first half of 2008, Sri Lanka witnessed significantly higher inflation than most other emerging Asian countries. Inflation has since declined amid declining world commodity prices and tight monetary policy. Given the sensitivity to global commodity prices, a core inflation measure...