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Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU for Peru

Rodríguez, Gabriel - Banco Central de Reserva del Perú - 2009

exploits the information contained in the inflation, unemployment and private investment rates in order to estimate non …-observable variables as output gap, the NAIRU and the core inflation. The unknown parameters are esti- mated by maximun likelihood using a …. Estimates suggest poor performance for the unemployment and private investment rates. I explain this issue as related to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056571

Inflação e nível de atividade no Brasil : estimativas via curva de Phillips

Brito, Leandro N. (contributor); … - 2008

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003772458

Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Ubide, Angel J. - 2021

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944

Estimating New Zealand's Output Gap Using a Small Macro Model

Szeto, Kam Leong - 2013

The Treasury has been testing the assumptions on the potential growth rate of the New Zealand economy. In this paper, we estimate a small macro model using Bayesian techniques, which allows us to assess the level of uncertainty of the estimates of the output gap. The model is based on the work...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115654

Estimating New Zealand’s Output Gap Using a Small Macro Model

Szeto, Kam Leong - Treasury, Government of New Zealand - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678053

The Markup and the Business Cycle Reconsidered.

Banerjee, A.; Russell, B. - Department of Economics, European University Institute - 2000

A fresh interpretaion is provided of the influential finding that the markup of prices over marginal costs is counter-cyclical. Using Rotemberg and Woodford's data set we argue that the markup is best modelled as a variable that is integrated of order one. A consequence of this finding is that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005744315

The Long-Run Phillips Curve and Non-Stationary Inflation

Russell, Bill; Banerjee, Anindya - Department of Economics, European University Institute - 2006

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and are unable to distinguish between competing models of inflation and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005744361

Competition, the Lisbon Strategy and the Euro

Banerjee, Anindya; Russell, Bill - Department of Economics, European University Institute - 2004

This paper considers whether the Euro-area economies have become more competitive since the introduction of the Euro and the implementation of the Lisbon strategy. Using a measure of the markup as a proxy for competition we show that while the markup has varied considerably over the past 25...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005697713

Oil price pass-through into core inflation

Conitti, Cristina; Luciani, Matteo - 2017

We estimate the oil price pass-through into consumer prices both in the US and in the euro area. In particular, we disentangle the specific effect that an oil price change might have on each disaggregate price, from the effect on all prices that an oil price change might have since it affects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011710173

A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand

Giannone, Domenico; Matheson, Troy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper introduces a new indicator of core inflation for New Zealand, estimated using a dynamic factor model and disaggregate consumer price data. Using disaggregate consumer price data we can directly compare the predictive performance of our core indicator with a wide range of other ‘core...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656226

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