We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. We consider the SPY and 20 stocks that vary by sector, volume and degree of jump activity. We use...

The ability of Google Trends data to forecast the number of new daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 is examined using a dataset of 158 countries. The analysis includes the computations of lag correlations between confirmed cases and Google data, Granger causality tests, and an out-of-sample...

This paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for prediction and nowcasting with panel data consisting of series sampled at different frequencies. Motivated by the empirical problem of predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with macroeconomic, financial,...

We study the empirical properties of realized volatility of the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract at various time scales, ranging from a few minutes to one day. Our main finding is that intraday volatility is remarkably rough and persistent. What is more, by further studying daily realized...

Recent years have seen increased demand from institutional investors for passive replication products that track the performance of hedge fund strategies using liquid investable assets such as futures contracts. In practice, linear replication methods suffer from poor tracking performance and...

Option-implied moments, like implied volatility, contain useful information about an underlying asset's return distribution but are derived under the risk-neutral probability measure. This paper provides a direct way of converting risk-neutral moments into the corresponding physical moments,...

In this paper we provide a mathematical derivation that links traditional time-value-of-money concepts to Metcalfe value, and use Bitcoin, Facebook as numerical examples of the proof. There is compelling evidence that suggests that the growth and price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are...

We present a method for extracting the market risk premium from stock and option data and examine its validity. We extend Duan and Zhang's (2014) model to estimate the projected risk aversion coefficient using more information for the discrepancy of the physical from the risk-neutral...

This paper suggests that there was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15, which decreased them beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. This proposition is corroborated by two sets of bubble detection strategies: the first set consists of tests for financial bubbles, while the...

Bitcoin is an open source decentralized digital currency and a payment system. It has raised a lot of attention and interest worldwide and an increasing number of articles are devoted to its operation, economics and financial viability. This article reviews the econometric and mathematical tools...