In a situation when no single sample inc1udes all the endogenous variables of a simultaneous equation model but there are two (or more) non-overlapping samples and each variable is included in at least one, then it is possible to pool the data and estimate the model consistently by a two-stage...

This paper argues that empirical economic analysis in court proceedings is subject to important economic and legal restrictions, cumulating in a fundamental trade-off between accuracy and practicality. We draw lessons from two influential German court cases - the paper wholesaler cartel decision...

Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um...

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially...

The ability to allow for flexible forms of unobserved heterogeneity is an essential ingredient in modern microeconometrics. In this paper we extend the application of instrumental variable (IV) methods to a wide class of problems in which multiple values of unobservable variables can be...

The ability to allow for flexible forms of unobserved heterogeneity is an essential ingredient in modern microeconometrics. In this paper we extend the application of instrumental variable (IV) models to a wide class of problems in which multiple values of unobservable variables can be...

Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015...

Identification in a regression discontinuity (RD) design hinges on the discontinuity in the probability of treatment when a covariate (assignment variable) exceeds a known threshold. If the assignment variable is measured with error, however, the discontinuity in the first stage relationship...

Trygve Haavelmo's The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944) has been widely regarded as the foundation document of modern econometrics. Nevertheless, its significance has been interpreted in widely different ways. Some modern economists regard it as a blueprint for a provocative, but...