Narrow search
Showing 111 - 120 of 96,310
Cover Image
Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries
Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - Turun Kauppakorkeakoulu, Turun Yliopisto - 2012
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011140924
Cover Image
The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity
Hännikäinen, Jari - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
spread in a real-time forecasting exercise. However, the predictive ability of the mortgage spread varies over time. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109115
Cover Image
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111725
Cover Image
Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation
Knotek, Edward S. Knotek, II; Zaman, Saeed - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014
Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114917
Cover Image
Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Wolters, Maik Hendrik - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422087
Cover Image
GDP Modelling with Factor Model: an Impact of Nested Data on Forecasting Accuracy
Bessonovs, Andrejs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
forecasting accuracy within factor modelling framework. Nested data means disaggregated data or sub-components of aggregated … mean square error is employed as the standard tool to measure forecasting accuracy. According to this empirical study we … enhance Latvian GDP forecasting accuracy. The efficiency gain improving forecasts is about 0.15-0.20 percentage points of year …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643211
Cover Image
Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment
Larson, William D. - Department of Economics, George Washington University - 2010
This paper compares the performance of different forecasting models of California house prices. Multivariate, theory … theoretical economic relationships into empirical forecasting models. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008775978
Cover Image
Monthly recession predictions in real time: A density forecast approach for German industrial production
Rietzler, Katja; Stephan, Sabine - Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung … - 2012
In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010625645
Cover Image
Forecasting growth in eastern Europe and central Asia
Ohnsorge, Franziska; Korniyenko, Yevgeniya - European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) - 2011
-autoregressive model is used to forecast growth under various scenarios. The paper includes a comparison between the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010627319
Cover Image
Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland
Siliverstovs, Boriss; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - In: Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer … 232 (2012) 4, pp. 429-444
-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting, although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010580967