I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

State price density (SPD) contains important information concerning market expectations. In existing literature, a constrained estimator of the SPD is found by nonlinear least squares in a suitable Sobolev space...

This paper empirically investigates the link between the level of government revenue per capita and six indicators of quality of governance in an unbalanced panel data set consisting of all countries in the world (217) using data from 1980 to 2020. It uses single-equation GMM techniques and a...

This paper presents a new approach to deriving default intensities from CDS or bond spreadsthat yields smooth intensity curves required e.g. for pricing or risk management purposes. Assumingcontinuous premium or coupon payments, the default intensity can be obtained by solving an...

The generalized method of moments estimator may be substantially biased in finite samples, especially so when there are large numbers of unconditional moment conditions. This paper develops a class of first order equivalent semi-parametric efficient estimators and tests for conditional moment...

The principal purpose of this paper is to adapt to the conditional moment context the GEL unconditional moment methods described in Smith(1997, 2001) and Newey and Smith(2004). In particular we develop GEL estimators which achieve the semiparametric efficiency lower bound. The requisite GEL...

Consider an observed binary regressor D and an unobserved binary variable D*, both of which affect some other variable Y . This paper considers nonparametric identification and estimation of the effect of D on Y , conditioning on D* = 0. For example, suppose Y is a person's wage, the unobserved...

There are many economic parameters that depend on nonparametric first steps. Examples include games, dynamic discrete choice, average exact consumer surplus, and treatment effects. Often estimators of these parameters are asymptotically equivalent to a sample average of an object referred to as...

In this paper, a general Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition is derived that can also be applied to non-linear models, which allows the differences in a non-linear outcome variable between two groups to be decomposed into a part that is explained by differences in observed characteristics and a part...

A regression model is considered where earnings are explained by schooling and ability. It is assumed that schooling is measured with error and that there are no data on ability. Regressing earnings on observed schooling then yields an estimate of the return to schooling that is subject to...