From the financial supervisor's point of view, an early warning system involves an ex ante approach to regulation, targeted to predict and prevent crises. An efficient EWS allows timely ex ante policy action and can reduce the need for ex post regulation. This chapter builds on existing...

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial...

Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between Merton-type and Black-Cox-type structural default models. Our...

Financial globalization has given an impetus to the development and innovation in financial products. However, at the same time, it has complicated banking regulations and its consequent risk management mechanisms. The GFC and consequent Basel III have accentuated the importance of operational...

The recent crisis has spurred the use of stress tests as a (crisis) management and early warning tool. However, a weakness is that they omit potential risks embedded in the banking groups™ geographical structures by assuming that capital and liquidity are available wherever they are needed...

This paper presents a new method to validate risk models: the Risk Map. This method jointly accounts for the number and the magnitude of extreme losses and graphically summarizes all information about the performance of a risk model. It relies on the concept of a super exception, which is...

Using supervisory data for US banks, we evaluate the alignment of Basel II/III AIRB (Advanced Internal Ratings Based) risk estimates with portfolio risk. We use loan performance as a direct measure of portfolio risk as well as less direct market-based measures. Our results document that loan...

We show that a pattern of earnings management in bank financial statements has little bearing on downside risk during quiet periods, but seems to have a big impact during a financial crisis. More aggressive earnings managers prior to 2007 exhibit substantially higher risk once the financial...

A defining difference of macro-style stress testing is the explicit consideration of profitability dynamics in the stress scenario. Traditional stress testing had focused almost exclusively on losses only, but a complete assessment of capital adequacy under stress must take into account not just...