Demographic change belongs to the mega-trends of the 20th and the 21st century. The ongoing aging process in major industrialized countries gives rise to the relative scarcity of raw labor and the relative abundance of physical capital. Standard macroeconomic models suggest that this depresses...

Large fundamental imbalances persist in the global economy, with potential exchange rate implications. This paper assesses whether exchange rate risk is priced across G-7 stock markets. Given the multitude of hedging instruments available, theory suggests that stock market investors should not...

This paper explores international bond spillovers using daily and intra-day data on yields on inflation-indexed bonds and associated inflation expectations for the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Sweden, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The analysis starts in 2002, by which point U.S....

This paper constructs new indicators of liquidity for equity, bond and money markets in major advanced and emerging market countries, documents their evolution and comovements, and assesses the extent to which such measures are determinants of selected spreads and proxy measures of countries'...

This short paper studies the empirical relationship between realized stock returns and bond <p> yields at the 5- and 10-year investment horizons, respectively. Using annual Danish data since <p> 1927, we find that stock returns and bond yields are closely linked in the medium and long <p> term, as we...</p></p></p>

This Article IV Consultation reports that Malta’s economy continues to perform well amidst considerable turbulence in the euro area. While spillovers have remained contained to date, Malta’s large financial sector and highly open economy heighten contagion and financial stability...

The size of the U.S. economy and, in particular, the global dominance of its financial markets creates uniquely large policy spillovers. Concerns that the end of QE2 could lead to a rapid reversal of emerging market capital flows appear overblown. A credible plan for a gradual U.S. fiscal...

This staff report discusses Israel’s 2009 Article IV Consultation on economic developments and policies. The economy has been shielded from the global downturn by the absence of prior housing or bank credit booms, high household savings rates, and the fact that investment goods and...

This Selected Issues paper summarizes estimates of the gap between current housing prices and their equilibrium levels in the United States. It examines short-term dynamics of price adjustment. Reflecting uncertainties about how to analyze underlying housing price trends, two approaches are used...

This paper assesses financial integration in Asia in terms of risk-sharing benefit versus financial-contagion cost. We construct a new measure of risk sharing based on a term structure model, which allows identification of realized stochastic discount factors. Risk sharing is low in Asia, and...