We perform a large-scale empirical analysis of the question whether model-based forecasts can be improved by adding expert knowledge. We consider a huge database of a pharmaceutical company where the head office uses a statistical model to generate monthly sales forecasts at various horizons for...

In this paper we describe a decision support system developed to help in assessing the need for various type of prison cells. In particular we predict the probability that a criminal has to be sent home because of a shortage of cells. The problem is modelled through a queueing network with...

It frequently occurs that experts adjust forecasts from statistical models. There is some evidence that such adjusted forecasts can lead to substantially better performance. Little is known about competence and confidence effects in what these experts do. Theoretical and experimental results in...

Theory predicts that dismissing the 1 and 2 euro cent coins from the denominational range of the euro leads to more payment efficiency. To examine whether this theory holds true in practice, we collected data for the Netherlands before and after September 1 2004, which marks the day that retail...

This paper presents a case study of applying a Bayesian approach to forecast demand and subsequently determine the appropriate parameter S of an (S-1,S) inventory system for controlling spare parts of electronic equipment. First, the problem and the current policy are described. Then, the basic...

An important feature of panel data is that it allows the estimation of parameters characterizing dynamics from individual level data. Several authors argue that such parameters can also be identified from repeated cross-section data and present estimators to do so. This paper reviews the...

Strategic airline fleet planning is one of the major issues addressed through newly initiated decision support systems, designed to assist airlines and aircraft manufacturers in assessing the benefits of the emerging concept of dynamic capacity allocation. We present background research...

The aim of this paper is to make a contribution to the investigation of the roots and essence of convex analysis, and to the development of the duality formulas of convex calculus. This is done by means of one single method: firstly conify, then work with the calculus of convex cones, which...

A logarithmic residue is a contour integral of the (left or right) logarithmic derivative of an analytic Banach algebra valued function. Logarithmic residues are intimately related to sums of idempotents. The present paper is concerned with logarithmic residues and sums of idempotents in the...

Realized variance, being the summation of squared intra-day returns, has quickly gained popularity as a measure of daily volatility. Following Parkinson (1980) we replace each squared intra-day return by the high-low range for that period to create a novel and more efficient estimator called the...