The worst financial crises since the Great Depression has forced central bankers and policymakers across Europe and around the globe to take unprecedented policy measures to deal with systemic risk, i.e. the risk that the financial system ceases to perform its function of allocating capital to...

We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence...

This lecture discusses the work by the Estonian economist Ragnar Nurkse (1907-1959). It focuses on the early Nurkse, who was concerned with exchange rates, capital flows and what today we call the international financial architecture. It asks how many of the conclusions of International Currency...

We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's 1931 banking crisis, collecting new data on bank branches and firm-bank connections. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in precrisis exposure to the bank at the center of the crisis, we show that Nazi votes surged in locations more...

We show that risk-mitigating incentives dominate risk-shifting incentives in fragile banks. We study security trading by banks, as banks can easily and quickly change their risk exposure within their security portfolio. For identification, we exploit different crisis shocks and supervisory...

This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China's overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China's growing role in the global financial...

This paper examines through a panel data analysis the determinants of government bond yield spreads for over-borrowed European countries (Belgium, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain) for the period 1990–2010. The results suggest that the aforementioned government bond yield spreads were...

This article will argue that the shadow banking system has been at the heart of the Great Crisis since its first manifestations in the summer of 2007. This system has been purposefully misunderstood, as it is essentially a complex machine of too-big-to-fail banks designed to make large private...

Banks play an important role in the post-Keynesian theory of endogenous money but post-Keynesians have not paid much attention to the prudential regulation of banks. Do post-Keynesian insights into the role of banks cast any light on the way they ought to be regulated, or can the conventional...