This paper examines the variables that determine the performance of countries at the Olympic Games as measured by a weighted sum of the medals won at the Sydney 2000 Games. While previous studies have identified the importance of a country's economic size and the resources available to sport,...

Two models are specified, estimated, and used to generate out-of-sample forecasts over the period since China announced a shift in exchange rate policy from a simple peg to the US dollar to a basket peg. The results show that the model that is based on a crawling peg is far superior to the model...

Market-based forecasting of exchange rates is flawed because it is based on two hypotheses that are not supported by empirical evidence: the simple random walk hypothesis and the unbiased efficiency hypothesis. By using historical data on six currency combinations it is shown that these two...

This paper presents structural time series evidence supporting the Post Keynesian hypothesis on the role of expectations in the foreign exchange market. For all of the four exchange rates examined, the hypothesis that exchange rates are driven primarily by expectations is strongly supported. The...

A continuous-time dynamic interpolation method for deriving high-frequency data is illustrated by deriving monthly data from quarterly data on two US macroeconomic variables: industrial production as a flow variable and the money supply as a stock variable. Analysis of the actual and...

Two propositions are verified about the exchange rate regime of a basket peg, which is adopted by some developing countries. The first is that by pegging the domestic currency to an import-weighted basket, the economy can be insulated from the imported inflation resulting purely from change in...

The profitability of carry trade is investigated using six currency combinations and historical data covering the period December 1999-June 2006. Hypothesis testing and Monte Carlo simulations produce results that cast doubt on the profitability of carry trade, as there is mostly a fifty-fifty...

Two propositions are verified about the exchange rate regime of a basket peg, which is adopted by some developing countries. The first is that by pegging the domestic currency to an import-weighted basket, the economy can be insulated from the imported inflation resulting purely from change in...