The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this … unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run … unemployment rate can be affected by aggregate demand shocks. While policy makers have warned of the risk of hysteresis since the …

Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to … both the high persistence of unemployment and its weak correlation with productivity. We show this by modifying an … otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment …