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The 2007-2008 global _financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on further assume that these common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790552
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010757723
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286232
This paper examines the investment behavior of different financial institutions in debt securities with a particular focus on their response to price changes. For identification, we use security-level data from the German Microdatabase Securities Holdings Statistics. Our results suggest that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975050
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338658
uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from … parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on the error correction representation of the model, we distinguish between measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233069
between countries using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. Over the period 2000Q1-2020Q4, our global index is able … the COVID-19 pandemic. Global spillover effects are quantified through a novel GVAR-based decomposition of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281497
Much of the literature on the effect of housing wealth on consumption has been embedded in a simple life-cycle model in which housing price changes work as a "wealth effect". In such models, windfall gains in housing always lead to positive changes in consumption. However, this might constitute...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337472
Much of the literature on the effect of housing wealth on consumption has been embedded in a simple life-cycle model in which housing price changes work as a "wealth effect". In such models, windfall gains in housing always lead to positive changes in consumption. However, this might be a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772970
This article tracks the history of sectoral saving and borrowing in the US economy over the past 50 years. We show that the financial imbalances that erupted in the financial crisis of 2008 were long in the making and preceded the emergence of global imbalances in the 2000s. These new dynamics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010466912