This paper describes the model of the Bulgarian economy designed, formulated and constructed within the Bulgarian Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting. The model is an annual model, although some of the parameters are estimated on the basis of quarterly information. Its main feature is...

Целта на настоящото изследване е да се изгради надежден иконометричен модел, който да позволи прогнозиране на динамиката на растежа в средносрочен период. За...

The objective of this paper is to check if the exchange rate in newly emerged, relatively thin foreign exchange markets, follows a random walk pattern. The findings of the current study cast doubts on random walk presence in Bulgarian exchange rates against major international currencies. It...

The current study aims to characterize price controls and inflation dynamics in Bulgaria on the path to market prices. The conclusions made on the importance and intensity of the inflation process are based on the consumer price index as well as on the retail prices data.

Целта на настоящия анализ е да се характеризира ценовия контрол и инфлационните процеси в България след стартирането на процеса на преминаване към пазарно...

The Bulgarian blueprint of the economic reform rests on a special clear-cut disposition of its parts. It has been two years now since the stabilisation programme has been put in effect and is still lacking in an inbuilt structural reform and privatization steps. Structural measures have reached...

The present study of the Agency for Economic Programming and Development aims to characterize the inflation process based on the existing measures, as well as on the elaborated custom indices. The paper put special focus on the assessment of the real interest rate level during 1991.

The study presents a dynamic model of inflation. The state-owned enterprises behaviour during the process of transition to a market economy has been thoroughly investigated. The model is based on the statistical data for Bulgarian economy, but its more general analytical framework allows its...

This paper presents strong empirical evidence that automatic stabilizers and countercyclical fiscal policy decrease output volatility. The conducted empirical analysis proves the economic intuition that the automatic fiscal stance is countercyclical, regardless of the size and the prosperity of...

Целта на този анализ на Агенцията за икономическо програмиране и развитие е да фиксира параметрите на инфлацията на основа на съществуващите измерители и чрез...