This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to examine the extent to which a tax cut pays for itself through higher economic growth. The model yields simple expressions for the steady-state feedback effect of a tax cut. The feedback is surprisingly large: for standard parameter values, half of...

We explore a hypothesis about the take-off in inflation that occurred in the early 1970s. According to the expectations trap hypothesis, the Fed was pushed into producing the high inflation out of a fear of violating the public's inflation expectations. We compare this hypothesis with the...

Three panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) in 14 developing Asian countries. Tests for the effects of financial reforms are made with estimates for two sub-samples of 1970-1985 and 1986-2005. Our results show that money...

Using a simple framework, I reexamine the Hayashi and Prescott hypothesis (2006) that a barrier to labor mobility that maintained high agricultural employment was a cause of the stagnation in the prewar Japanese economy. I find that the labor misallocation between the agricultural and...

Not available

It is generally acknowledged that a government’s output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution adopted by national accounts systems is to equate output value to input costs, but well-documented inefficiencies in government activities make this...

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio). We find that both tests have power so that a...

Balkan countries, block of Albania, Serbia, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro, Macedonia have somewhat specific path toward future economic growth . Although some of them are part of EU community ( Bulgaria Romania ) and they have experienced the highest GDP growth rate 2014/2000 ,...

The logistic growth model to explain changes in population growth rates are not. In this paper a new analysis of the population growth rate in the frequency space is described with mathematical logic and economic reasoning, so that, firstly, to a higher level of capital per capita, or at least...

This Working Paper is aimed at describing the current version of Federal Planning Bureau's medium-term macrosectoral model, named HERMES. This model is used to produce on a regular basis medium-term outlooks for the Belgian economy. In addition to the main macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, private...