In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimized interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area that differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioral elements, and adherence to microfoundations. Our findings are...

Core or underlying inflation indicators feature prominently in the economic debate and in internal and external policy discussions of central banks. Notwithstanding this popularity the role of core inflation measures in the monetary policy-making process is questionable since most of these...

The forecasting profession, especially when producing forecasts intended to support economic policy, does not currently enjoy a good reputation. Complaints are sometimes voiced about its lack of scientific discipline, which in turn implies that the forecast results may be viewed as arbitrary. At...