A short term mixed-frequency model is proposed to estimate and forecast the Italian economic activity fortnightly. Building on Frale et al. (2011), we introduce a dynamic factor model with three frequencies (quarterly, monthly and fortnightly), by selecting indicators that show significant...

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the euro area by means of Bayesian techniques. The model accounts for distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on...

We reconsider the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of a new-keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We assume that a fraction of the agents are non Ricardian and estimate the model parameters using Bayesian techniques. Our results show that the estimates of...

We present a mixed-frequency model for daily forecasts of euro area inflation. The model combines a monthly index of core inflation with daily data from financial markets; estimates are carried out with the MIDAS regression approach. The forecasting ability of the model in real-time is compared...

In this paper a dynamic factor model with mixed frequency is proposed (FaMIDAS), where the past observations of high frequency indicators are used following the MIDAS approach. This structure is able to represent with richer dynamics the information content of the economic indicators and...

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.