The paper explores the possibility of making investment decisions in emerging markets by using the trend analysis method on a particular example of the capital market in Serbia. The authors, starting from the common features of technical analysis, have analysed the common share index value in...

We develop a sequential procedure to test the adequacy of jump-diffusion models for return distributions. We rely on intraday data and nonparametric volatility measures, along with a new jump detection technique and appropriate conditional moment tests, for assessing the import of jumps and...

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The impact of news from the Moscow and New York stock exchanges on the daily returns and volatilities of Baltic stock market indices is studied. A nonlinear time series model that accounts for asymmetries in conditional mean and variance functions is used for the empirical work. News from New...

In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...

This paper investigates various machine learning trading and portfolio optimisation models and techniques. The notebooks to this paper are Python based. By last count there are about 15 distinct trading varieties and around 100 trading strategies. Code and data are made available where...

Does Indian sovereign yield volatility reflect economic fundamentals, or whether it is a self-generated force flowing through markets with little connection to such fundamentals? To answer the question, this research explores the volatility dynamics and measures the persistence of shocks to the...

The crumble of financial markets due to the recent crises has wobbled precariousness in the stock market and intensified the returns vulnerability of banking indices. Against this backdrop, this study intends to model the volatility of the Indian Bank Nifty returns using a battery of GARCH...