We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition...

We derive a measure of technological change using firm-level panel data and controlling for imperfect competition, increasing returns and unobserved factor utilization. We show that the latter variable accounts for a relevant portion of the cyclicality of the Solow residual. Our key finding is...

Unobservable labor utilization is recognized as a crucial feature of economic fluctuations. Yet very little is known on the behavior of work effort over the business cycle. By using firm-level panel data drawn from two high-quality sources, we obtain a microeconomic estimate of variable labor...

This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the...

Recent contributions have suggested that technology shocks have a negative short-run effect on labor input, contrary to the predictions of standard flexible-price models of the business cycle. Some authors have interpreted this finding as evidence in favor of stickyprice models, while others...

An important element of the macro-prudential analysis is the study of the link between business cycle fluctuations and banking sector profitability and how this link is affected by institutional and structural characteristics. This work estimates a set of equations for net interest income,...

This paper studies the provision of incentives in a universal bank. This is regarded as a (common) agent serving different clients with potentially conflicting interests; for example, it may buy assets on behalf of investors and sell assets on behalf of issuing firms. The clients offer incentive...

We analyze the main forces affecting financial system pro-cyclicality (the fact that developments in the financial sector can amplify business cycle fluctuations). We first review some major structural developments in financial markets that may influence pro-cyclicality and that have been...

A growing number of studies on the US subprime market indicate that, due to asymmetric information, credit risk transfer activities have perverse effects on banks� lending standards. We investigate a large part of the market for securitized assets (�prime mortgages�) in Italy, a...