O presente texto serviu como base para a apresentação da lição de síntese do autor, efectuada muito recentemente. Agradecem-se os comentários e as sugestões de Paulo M. M. Rodrigues. Naturalmente, comentários e sugestões adicionais serão muito bem vindos. O principal objectivo deste...

To investigate time heterogeneity in the e¤ects of fiscal policy in the U.S., we use a non-recursive, Blanchard and Perotti-like structural VAR with time-varying parameters, estimated through Bayesian simulation over the 1965:2-2009:2 period. Our evidence suggests that fiscal policy has lost...

In this article, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double seasonal univariate time series models (Holt-Winters, ARIMA and GARCH) based on multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. A within-week seasonal cycle and a within-year seasonal cycle are accommodated in...

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