Simulations with dynamic, single country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring...

This paper analyses the impacts of trade policy responses to rising world food prices by carrying out a series of stylised experiments in the wheat market using a world trade model, GTAP. The sequence of events that is modelled comprises a negative wheat supply shock and subsequent...

Ukraine has a rapidly ageing and declining population. A dynamic forward-looking Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model with an explicitly modelled Pay-As-You-­Go pension scheme is constructed to perform simulations of different pension reform scenarios and investigate the impact of...

Using a disaggregated energy–economy–environmental model, we investigate the economic and environmental impact of a Scottish specific carbon tax under three alternative assumptions about the use of the revenue raised by the tax: revenues raised are not recycled within Scotland; revenues are...

We examine the potential gains for India from increased temporary migration of skilled workers from India to major recipient-countries of Indian migrant workers, in light of potential productivity gains from return migration. The article uses the GMig2 Global Bilateral Labour Migration Model and...

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary...

The paper uses MONASH, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, to investigate the impact on the Australian economy of a 50 per cent increase in the skilled migrant intake over the period 2005-2025. The primary purpose of the modelling it to identify how the labour market might absorb an...

Large-scale multi-regional CGE models of Australia, such as MMRF and TERM, underlie most CoPS consulting work. The regional detail, modelled in bottom-up fashion, greatly interests policy makers and is often needed to answer questions like: how would less rainfall in southern Australia affect...

The economic impacts of retaining tariffs in New Zealand. A dynamic CGE analysis

In this report we use our new dynamic computable general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of the personal tax cuts, cuts to small business taxes, and infrastructure spending that have been announced since late last year. We have assumed in this paper that the Government will need to raise...