In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables with particular interest on the importance of using CPI disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set...

We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifically, we compare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and...

In this paper we do a statistical analysis of the Mexican Consumer Price Index microdata set to characterize the rigidities of the price setting process in the different sectors of the Mexican economy. The microdata set goes from July 2002 to December 2009. Broadly, results show that there...

Systematic sampling is a commonly used technique due to its simplicity and ease of implementation. The drawback of this simplicity is that it is not possible to estimate the design variance without bias. There are several ways to circumvent this problem. One method is to suppose that the...

This note studies the causal relationship that may exist between the producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI). In contrast with previous international studies, the results suggest that, in the case of Mexico, information on the PPI seems to be useful to improve forecasts of...

This paper studies how inflation as a macroeconomic indicator affects nominal bond prices. I consider an economy with a representative agent with Epstein- Zin preferences. Regime switching affects the state-space capturing inflation and consumption growth. Thus, the agent is concerned about the...

The size of the average American household has fallen dramatically -from six in 1850 to three in 2000. To explain this decline we model households as collections of roommates who share the costs of household public goods. If private goods are more income elastic than public goods, as we document...

We address the role that deep, structural factors may have as determinants of Mexico’s economic growth. We argue that Mexico’s poor growth performance appears to be associated not only with shorter-run events such as the "lost decade" of the eighties, but also with supply-side features of...

To advance our understanding of the mechanisms through which monetary policy affect the economy, in this note we analyze the volatilities of the Mexican short-term interest rate and of the peso-Dollar exchange rate under two monetary policy instruments: a non-borrowed reserves requirement target...

We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns....