Before the housing boom and bust, changes in local house values appeared to be a local phenomenon. Now, however, the District’s house-price changes are mirroring national patterns. Therefore, downward trends in other parts of the country may continue to negatively affect prices in the District.

District Overview

The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve's Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)...