This paper analyses the evolution of Portuguese terms of trade over the last decades. Firstly, their evolution is described: (i) terms of trade registered an upward trend since the second half of the 80s, after the apparent stability observed since 1950; (ii) this was a generalized phenomenon across...

The main objective of this paper is to estimate and analyse a relatively long and homogeneous time series (from 1980 onward) on the wealth of households in Portugal. Wealth components covered are financial wealth (financial assets and liabilities) and the housing component of non-financial...

With few exceptions, most economic data undergo revisions. Although frequently neglected, data revisions may have implications, not only for economic analysis, but also for policy decisions, as revisions may alter current assessment and forecasts of economic developments. In this paper, we...

The paper investigates the link between domestic demand pressure and exports by considering an error correction dynamic panel model for eleven euro area countries over the last two decades. The results suggest that there is a statistically signi?cant substitution e¤ect between domestic and...

How should we forecast GDP? Should we forecast directly the overall GDP or aggregate the forecasts for each of its components using some level of disaggregation? The search for the answer continues to motivate several horse races between these two approaches. Nevertheless, independently of the...

Traditionally, exports behavior is modeled only as a function of the foreign demand and the real exchange rate. However, it is by now widely acknowledged that these variables are not able to fully explain exports developments. This paper suggests considering domestic demand pressure as an...

Institutions which publish macroeconomic forecasts usually do not rely on a single econometric model to generate their forecasts. The combination of judgements with information from different models complicates the problem of characterizing the predictive density. This paper proposes a...