Statisztikusok és pénzügyi adatelemzők számára jól ismert empirikus tény, hogy a pénzügyi ingadozások természete eltér a klasszikus, normális (Gauss) eloszláson alapuló leírástól. A pénzügyi matematika, illetve az elméleti pénzügyi irodalom mégis paradigmaként kezeli...

A hosszú távú idősorok vizsgálatának legnagyobb hazai úttörője Jánossy Ferenc volt, aki a hatvanas években megalkotta híres trendvonal-elméletét, és ennek segítségével majdnem egy évtizeddel korábban megjósolta a hetvenes évek nagy világgazdasági visszaesését. A...

A tanulmány Magyarország tejvertikumának piaci viselkedését elemzi 1995 és 2003 között. Egyrészt azt vizsgálja, hogy a tejvertikumon belül a piaci hatásoknak megfelelően alakultak-e az egyes vertikumszakaszok árai, másrészt hogy a vertikum mely szereplői vannak a legnagyobb...

The rapid increase in the accessibility of firearms and ammunition represents a key factor in the destabilization of many countries. It is also commonly associated with an escalation in the intensity and organization of collective and interpersonal violence. In some cases, arms are illegally...

This article proposes semi-parametric least squares estimation of parametric risk-return relationships, i.e. parametric restrictions between the conditional mean and the conditional variance of excess returns given a set of unobservable parametric factors. A distinctive feature of our estimator...

Multiple structural change tests by Bei and Perron (1998) are applied to the regression by Demetrescu, Kuzin and Hassler (2008) in order to detect breaks in the order of fractional integration. With this instrument we tackle time-varying inflation persistence as an important issue for monetary...

Evidence in favour of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is at best mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that it is the...

We investigate the stock market comovements in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Africa, the UK, and the USA, both at the market and sectoral level in 2000-2010. Using multivariate GARCH models, our results suggest that the correlation among equity...

This paper examines the contemporaneous and inter-temporal interaction between real exchange rate and real interest rate differential in the two financial crises of 1997 and 2008 by using data from thirteen countries from different world regions. The empirical result shows that negative...

This paper analyses two well-known features of interest rates, namely their time dependence and their cyclical structure. Specifically, it focuses on the monthly Euribor rate, using monthly data from January 1994 to May 2011. Models based on fractional integration at the long run or zero...