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In a parsimonious regime switching model, we find strong evidence that expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012797771
This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone's (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth". In contrary to their semi-parametric approach, the SSV...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807854
A risky skill game is a game in which skill plays an important role but outcomes are also strongly influenced by random factors. Examples are poker or blackjack but also many economic activities like trading on financial markets. In an online experiment we let subjects choose how often they want...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013257399
uncertainty. We find that policy uncertainty raises the rate of inventor emigration by a notable magnitude. With a one standard … deviation in the policy uncertainty of the home country, relative to the possible destination countries, the rate of inventor … emigration increases by nearly 40%. Migrating inventors are subsequently exposed to lower levels of policy uncertainty in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013411271
How do real interest rates affect financial fragility? We study this issue in a model in which bank borrowing is subject to rollover risk. A bank’s optimal borrowing trades off the benefit from investing additional funds into profitable assets with the cost of greater risk of a run by bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013460206
Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact … on aggregate economic fuctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty … expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013500843
extent of trust and efficient allocations might feature resource burning or utility burning: trust is indeed a double …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013555532
. For the case in which household labor productivity takes two values, one of which is zero, and where households have log-utility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013555536
We propose and implement a method to identify shocks to transition risk, addressing key challenges regarding its definition and measurement. Our shocks are instances where significant new information about the economic relevance of climate change increases the valuation of green firms over brown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227599
The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600