I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy … analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of … commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I first document that model uncertainty poses substantial challenges for …

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy … analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of … commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I first document that model uncertainty poses substantial challenges for …

models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts. …

forecasts of nonstructural large dataset methods. Despite their common underlying New Keynesian modeling philosophy, forecasts … models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts. …

We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …

We develop a new class of utility functions, SAHARA utility, with the distinguishing feature that it allows absolute … of wealth. The class contains the well-known exponential and power utility functions as limiting cases.We investigate the … optimal investment problem under SAHARA utility and derive the optimal strategies in an explicit form using dual optimization …

We develop a new class of utility functions, SAHARA utility, with the distinguishing feature that it allows absolute … of wealth. The class contains the well-known exponential and power utility functions as limiting cases. We investigate … the optimal investment problem under SAHARA utility and derive the optimal strategies in an explicit form using dual …

may be used, e.g., in economics: microeconomics, macroeconomics, accounting, econometrics, utility theory; the Internet …