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In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to … different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No … surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are consistently selected among the top forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482020
longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138903
slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014933
I present evidence of systematically heterogeneous expectations, a violation of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. I demonstrate that the expectations of different gender and wealth cohorts have different relative abilities to predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076284
targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open …-2015:Q1 period and appear to be reliable proxies for global slack in forecasting inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957136
targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open …-2015:Q1 period and appear to be reliable proxies for global slack in forecasting inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960529
-consistent single-equation forecasting specification implied by theory, exploiting the international linkages of inflation. In this …-García (Forthcoming) use for inflation forecasting. We make note in particular of the role that the slope of the Phillips curve plays in … the equilibrium solution of the workhorse open-economy New Keynesian model and for forecasting purposes. We also include …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943015
slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970177
well in finite samples. Finally, three applications demonstrate the utility of the method in time-series (forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007673
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to … different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No … surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are consistently selected among the top forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027815