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Inflation as a Global Phenomenon - Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting
Kabukcuoglu Dur, Ayşe - 2017
slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970177
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Quantile Spacings : A Simple Method for the Joint Estimation of Multiple Quantiles Without Crossing
Schmidt, Lawrence - 2016
well in finite samples. Finally, three applications demonstrate the utility of the method in time-series (forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007673
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Think National, Forecast Local : A Case Study of 71 German Urban Housing Markets
Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - 2015
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to … different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No … surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are consistently selected among the top forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027815
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Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany
Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - 2014
The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044585
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Exploring the nexus between inflation and globalization under inflation targeting through the lens of New Zealand's experience
Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2017
targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open …-2015:Q1 period and appear to be reliable proxies for global slack in forecasting inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696333
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Keine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland - aber regional begrenzte Übertreibungen in Teilmärkten
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Michelsen, Claus - In: DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 84 (2017) 25, pp. 503-513
Obwohl die Preise für Wohnimmobilien in den 127 größten deutschen Städten in den vergangenen Jahren kräftig gestiegen sind, gibt es nach wie vor keine Anzeichen für eine landesweite Immobilienpreisblase. Zwar haben sich die Preise für Eigentumswohnungen im Vergleich mit dem Jahr 2009 um...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664963
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No Germany-wide housing bubble but overvaluation in regional markets and segments
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Michelsen, Claus - In: DIW economic bulletin 7 (2017) 25/26, pp. 255-264
Although the housing prices in the 127 largest German cities have surged strongly in recent years, there is still no sign of a Germanywide housing bubble. In comparison with 2009, the price of condominiums has risen by around 55 percent. Single-family houses cost between 38 and 45 percent more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011669510
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Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Michelsen, Claus; Ulbricht, Dirk - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2014
The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942857
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Modeling regional house prices
Franses, Philip Hans; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick; … - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2007
We develop a parsimonious panel model for quarterly regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731783
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Wohnungspreise und Mieten steigen 2013 in vielen deutschen Großstädten weiter
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Mense, Andreas - In: DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 79 (2012) 45, pp. 3-13
; forecasting ; dynamic panel model ; spatial autocorrelation ; German cities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010079482