This paper describes how we constructed a real time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We...

We show that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for governmentbond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields andare well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.

In this paper we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and their determinants. The model generates accurate conditional...

In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) and their determinants. The model is estimated using Bayesian...