Christopher D. Carroll is an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University Baltimore and research associate at NBER. He obtained his BA from Harvard University in 1986 and his PhD from MIT in 1990. He first worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board and later took a job at Johns...

The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is...

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts...

For guidance in determining which items should be included in comprehensive NDP and how they should be included, reference is often made to the libearized Hamiltonian from an optimal growth problem. This note shows how the heuristic linearized-Hamiltonian argumentcan be given a rigorous welfare...

El Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España (MTBE) constituye una herramienta fundamental para la elaboración de proyecciones a medio plazo de la economía española y para la cuantificación de los posibles efectos de distintas medidas de política económica o de perturbaciones de diversa...

The quarterly model of the Banco de España (MTBE) is a primary tool in the elaboration of medium term projections for the Spanish economy and for the quantification of the effects of different economic policy measures or economic shocks of a very diverse nature. As part of the process of...

Long-term real interest rates across the world have fallen by about 450 basis points over the past 30 years. The co-movement in rates across both advanced and emerging economies suggests a common driver: the global neutral real rate may have fallen. In this paper we attempt to identify which...

This study finds that while present monetary and fiscal policy stances are likely to lead to robust growth and improved employment, this would come only at the expense of high government deficits, record foreign deficits, and rising ratios of government and foreign debt relative to GDP. Even...

“The real world does not understand the language of rationality and optimality that scientists would like to talk, nor it follows the music of efficiency and dynamic equilibrium as economists would like to play, rather spontaneously dances to the tunes of fear, pain, hunger, dignity, trust,...