Most banks employ historical simulation for Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations, where VaR is computed from a lower quantile of a forecast distribution for the portfolio’s profit and loss (P&L) that is constructed from a single, multivariate historical sample on the portfolio’s risk factors....

This paper explores the properties of random orthogonal matrix (ROM) simulation when the random matrix is drawn from the class of rotational matrices. We describe the characteristics of ROM simulated samples that are generated using random Hessenberg, Cayley and exponential matrices and compare...

Random orthogonal matrix (ROM) simulation is a very fast procedure for generating multivariate random samples that always have exactly the same mean, covariance and Mardia multivariate skewness and kurtosis. This paper investigates how the properties of parametric, data-specific and...

This paper introduces a method for simulating multivariate samples that have exact means, covariances, skewness and kurtosis. A new class of rectangular orthogonal matrices is fundamental to the methodology, and these "L-matrices'' can be deterministic, parametric or data specific in nature. The...

This paper resolves the conceptual ambiguity of real option value and derives a model using risk-adjusted discount rates that can be applied to value the option to invest in a project. The approach adopts stochastic revenue and costs which provide a general solution with the added virtue of...

With institutional investors increasingly involved in alternative investments, portfolio optimisation within a large universe of hedge funds has become a key area for research. This paper develops a portfolio construction model that is specifically designed for funds of hedge funds,...

his paper addresses the problem of uncertainty in volatility, and how this affects option prices. The volatility uncertainty adjustment to Black-Scholes option prices is quantified in this paper using a normal mixture model for the distribution of underlying returns, or equivalently, assuming a...

This paper examines the performance of a general dynamic equity indexing strategy based on cointegration, from a market efficiency perspective. A consistent return in excess of the benchmark is demonstrated over different time horizons and in different, real world and simulated stock markets. A...