Japan's economy stumbled in the 1990s. After four decades of rapid growth that transformed Japan into a wealthy country at the world's technological frontier, the last decade brought prolonged economic stagnation. The rapid run-up in asset prices in the late 1980s, followed by their collapse in...

The growth of East Asia’s intra-regional trade is driven largely by increased component trade within global electronics production networks. Data on both electronics trade and production elucidate a pattern of specialization in which upper- and middle-income countries produce...

Recently questions have been raised about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus policies, and about whether stimulus to a recessionary economy should be in the form of tax cuts or expenditure increases. This paper evaluates alternative empirical approaches to measuring the impact of fiscal policy...

The surge of oil prices in recent years has led to speculation that rising transportation costs could end the period of dramatic world trade growth in the words of Rubin (2009), …Your world is going to get a whole lot smaller. Using data from China's Customs Statistics, we examine the impact of...

Previous studies have argued that global value chains (GVCs) have increased the sensitivity of trade to foreign income shocks. This may occur either because GVC trade is concentrated in durable goods industries, which are known to have high income elasticities (a composition effect), or because,...

This article studies the growth and determinants of information technology (IT) trade in the Asia-Pacific region. We argue that the rise of IT trade must be understood within the context of increasing vertical fragmentation of production processes that has occurred over the past two decades. To...

We estimate sibling correlations in health status using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We use Bayesian methods to estimate the covariance structure of a system of latent variable equations. Across a battery of outcomes, we estimate that between 50% and 60% of health status can be attributed...

Kilauea volcano is the largest stationary source of SO2 pollution in the United States of America. Moreover, the SO2 that the volcano emits eventually forms particulate matter, another major pollutant. We use this exogenous SO2 on emergency room admissions and costs in the state of Hawaii....

We derive the precise analytic limit of the variance estimator of g, the concentrated ML estimator of gamma-naught in the adaptive regression model, and show that the limit and the original estimator generate virtually identical estimates of the variance of g and the corresponding significance...