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This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in … regarding specific topics, exerts a significant influence on inflation compensation, expectations, and risk premiums. We observe … contributes to the understanding of media influence on financial markets, specifically in shaping inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374818
Using Consensus Forecasts monthly surveys, we show that experts' interest rate expectations in the Eurofranc market do … not verify the rational expectations hypothesis. Instead, these expectations are found to be generated by a mixed process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094008
We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability … expectations framework. Consistent with the model, we find that variables that predict bond and currency returns also predict … patterns in bond and currency markets and predicts that long-term rates are a better gauge of market's short rate expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239719
We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability … expectations framework. Consistent with the model, we find that variables that predict bond and currency returns also predict … in bond and currency markets and predicts that long-term rates are a better gauge of market’s short rate expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208233
rates, and the pure interest rate expectations theory cannot be applied in interest rate forecasting. Long-term interest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005042607
The paper presents the analysis of risk premium of the interest rate term structure for the Latvian money market. On the back of the approach used by F. Diebold, G. Rudebusch and B. Aruoba, it has been assumed that the coefficients of the Nelson–Siegel model are unobservable therefore the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005052105
I propose a consumption-based asset pricing model in which the decision maker prices contingent cash flows realized at different future horizons and exposed to multiple shocks. The decision maker ignores the objective probability generating the data, and she evaluates a set of models that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255351
This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in … regarding specific topics, exerts a significant influence on inflation compensation, expectations, and risk premiums. We observe … contributes to the understanding of media influence on financial markets, specifically in shaping inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014376052
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222893
effective in ensuring stable and sensible implied expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010839046