Geanakoplos, John; Magill, Michael; Quinzii, Martine - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 2002
Stock market price/earnings ratios should be influenced by demography. Since demography is predictable, stock returns should be as well. We provide a simple stochastic OLG model with a cyclical structure that generates cyclical P/E ratios. We calibrate the model to roughly fit the cyclical...