There are problems with using probability quantification methods when the scaling factor applied in those methods becomes non-positive. The way of adjusting them proposed in this note and verified empirically allows using them in such circumstances. The results for the euro area and Ireland...

This paper estimates different versions of the stylized New Keynesian model of the Polish economy, in which alternative measures of inflation expectations are used, that is, model-consistent (rational) expectations and survey-based expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector...

On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

In the light of the results of empirical studies presented in the Report and the literature available it may be concluded that the form of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland is consistent with structural features of the Polish economy and coincides with those characteristic of...

This paper presents survey-based direct measures of inflation expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing those features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from the point of view of monetary...

In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP...

The paper provides an overview of the literature on the role of monetary aggregates for conducting monetary policy and attempts to assess the role of these aggregates in the Polish monetary policy. We compare theoretical and empirical arguments which justify or undermine the need for usage of...

Inflation perceived by consumers may differ from official statistics particularly due to different baskets of goods and services lay people and statisticians consider and by consumer loss aversion to price increases. Such effects, as suggested by the Prospect Theory, are confirmed in many...

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order...