In the canonical monetary policy model, money is endogenous to the optimal path for interest rates and output. But when liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for transactions money from the real economy, money is likely to contain information for future output and inflation because...

We develop a simple model for studying the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on aggregate demand, at the business cycle frequencies. We focus on two questions principally. First, what are the key properties of the joint optimal simple rules governing the conduct of the systematic components...

The paper provides an overview of the generation of electricity in 10 countries in South East Europe during 1995-2004. Using the latest available statistics the potential of the nascent integration of the electricity markets in South East Europe is explored. We conduct a cross-country analysis...

The contingency table literature on tests for dependence among discrete multi-category variables assume that draws are independent, and there are no tests that account for serial dependencies ? a problem that is particularly important in economics and finance. This paper proposes a new test of...

Argentina was one of the first countries in the world to implement a comprehensive reform of its electricity sector in the recent period. Among developing countries only Chile has had a comparably comprehensive and successful reform. This paper traces the history of the Argentine reform, which...

This paper conducts a comparative technical efficiency analysis of electricity generators in 16 small island economies using panel data, and two methodologies: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). The results indicate neither apparent differences in the...

This paper presents a new approach to portfolio optimisation that we call generalised mean-variance (GMV) analysis. One important case of this approach is based on the stocks m-tile (or quantile): if m = n, where n is the number of stocks, m-tile membership becomes rank. Our analysis is the rank...

We propose a Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach for assessing the existence and quantifying the effect of threshold effects in cross- country growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty. The BAT method extends the Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach...

We consider Sharpe’s one factor model of asset returns and its extension to K factors in order to explain theoretically why diversification can fail. This model can be used to explain nonlinear dependence amongst the assets in a portfolio. The result is intimately related to the tail...

Model uncertainty arises from uncertainty about correct economic theories, data issues and empirical specification problems. This paper investigates mutual dependence or jointness among variables in explaining the dependent variable. Jointness departs from univariate measures of variable...