A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

We show that the equivalence between certain problems of singular stochastic control (SSC) and related questions of optimal stopping known for convex performance criteria (see, for example, Karatzas and Shreve (1984)) continues to hold in a non convex problem provided a related discretionary...

We show that the equivalence between certain problems of singular stochastic control (SSC) and related questions of optimal stopping known for convex performance criteria (see, for example, Karatzas and Shreve (1984)) continues to hold in a non convex problem provided a related discretionary...

The proliferation of algorithmic high-frequency trading in financial markets has also led to an increase in new types of fraudulent activity. Since the flash-crash of 2010 first brought it to popular prominence, layering or spoofing fraud has become a major concern for financial regulators...

We show that the equivalence between certain problems of singular stochastic control (SSC) and related questions of optimal stopping known for convex performance criteria (see, for example, Karatzas and Shreve (1984)) continues to hold in a non convex problem provided a related discretionary...

In this paper we prove a deterministic approximation theorem for a sequence of Markov decision processeswith finitely many actions and general state spaces as they appear frequently in economics, game theory and operations research. Using viscosity solution methods no a-priori differentiabililty...

We consider the optimal dividend control problem to find an optimal strategy under the constraint that dividend rates are restricted such that the expected total discounted dividends is maximized for an insurance company. The evolution of the reserve is modeled by a diffusion process with drift...

We consider the optimal dividend distribution problem of a financial corporation whose surplus is modeled by a general diffusion process with both the drift and the diffusion coefficients depending on the external economic regime as well as the surplus itself through general functions. The aim...

This article introduces two sequential heuristics that are designed to overcome some of the practical limitations of the Entropy Pooling (EP) method. Both of these heuristics repeatedly apply the original EP method to sequentially arrive at the posterior probability and usually lead to...

This article introduces a very flexible framework for causal and predictive market views and stress-testing. The framework elegantly combines Bayesian networks (BNs) and Entropy Pooling (EP). In the new framework, BNs are used to generate a finite set of joint causal views / stress-tests for the...