Commercial real estate represents a significant fraction of total U.S. wealth, but its risk and returns at the property level are largely unknown. This paper utilizes detailed cash flow information of 2,845 commercial properties acquired for about $89 billion by institutional investors of NCREIF...

The renovation and expansion of existing commercial properties constitute important investments into the economic infrastructure. Such investments can facilitate economic growth if made at appropriate times and scales, but can also lead to a waste of economic resources and exacerbate market...

This paper develops a novel empirical method that uses property level cash flow information to estimate the risk and return characteristics of private commercial real estate. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that this method is more accurate than the conventional index-based approach. Applying...

Home value risk is among the largest financial risks for American households, and the distribution of home value risk across homeowners has important policy implications. This paper empirically examines spatial variation in home value risk across 99 neighborhoods in metropolitan Denver. Four...

This paper argues that econometric analysis of housing price indexes before 2006 generated forecasts of future long-term price growth and low estimated probabilities of extreme price decreases. These forecasts of future increases in home-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand...

This paper argues that econometric analysis of housing price indexes before 2006 generated forecasts of future long-term price growth and low estimated probabilities of extreme price decreases. These forecasts of future increases in home-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand...

Since its introduction by Owen, the empirical likelihood method has been extensively investigated and widely used to construct confidence regions and to test hypotheses in the literature. For a large class of statistics that can be obtained via solving estimating equations, the empirical...

We re-examine the methods used in estimating comovements among U.S. regional home prices and find that there are insufficient moments to ensure a normal limit necessary for employing the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. Hence, we propose applying the self- weighted quasi-maximum exponential...