The aim of the paper is to obtain a relaible indicator of the level and growth rate of an economic variable, when there is a trend break. This is a frequent phenomenon and has implications for short-term analysis and forecasting, besides rendering more difficult signal extraction. We propose a...

A new method of estimating a component model for the analysis of financial durations is proposed. The components are long-run dynamics and seasonality. The latter is left unspecified and the former is assumed to fall within the class ofa certain family of parametric functions. The proposed...

This article presents economic forecasting as an activity acquiring full significance when it is involved in a decision-making process. The activity requires a sequence of functions consisting of gathering and organising data, the construction of econometric models and ongoing forecast...

En este trabajo se presenta la predicción económica como una actividad que adquiere plena relevancia cuando está inmersa en un proceso de toma de decisiones. El desarrollo de esta actividad requiere una secuencia de funciones consistente en la recolección y organización de datos,...

This paper examines the problem of forecasting macro-variables which are observed monthly (or quarterly) and result from geographical and sectorial aggregation. The aim is to formulate a methodology whereby all relevant information gathered in this context could provide more accurate forecasts,...