We estimate monetary policy reaction functions with threshold effects for the Deutsche Bundesbank using a real-time data set. Estimates based on the deviation of inflation from the Bundesbank's inflation target as threshold variable suggest a switch to a stronger output gap response in the...

Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of...

This paper studies uncertainty about out-of-sample interest rate forecasts implied by an estimated Taylor rule. It is shown that the Taylor rule leads to a decomposition of forecast uncertainty into an element that depends on uncertainty about the future state of the economy and another element...

Seit Mai 2010 kauft die Europäische Zentralbank direkt Anleihen privater und öffentlicher Schuldner auf dem Sekundärmarkt. Markus C. Kerber, Technische Universität Berlin, vertritt die Ansicht, dass diese »neue Offenmarktpolitik« der EZB, der Erwerb von Staatsanleihen auf dem...

This paper studies whether monetary policy should respond to changes in monetary aggregates or stock market indices. Based on an empirical model of the US it presents estimates of how the inclusion of monetary aggregates or stock market indices in the central bank's information set affects the...