This paper presents a theory of the maturity of international sovereign debt and derives its implications for the reform of the international financial architecture. It presents a general equilibrium model in which the need to roll over external debt disciplines the policies of debtor countries...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Costa Rica’s economic performance improved in 2003. Following several years of slow growth, real GDP rose by 5½ percent, boosted by a recovery of exports and strong private investment. Inflation declined below 10 percent while...

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when...

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

This paper examines Peru’s 2004 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. In 2003, Peru’s real GDP grew by 4 percent, with inflation of 2.5 percent and a further strengthening of the...

This paper explains Sierra Leone’s completion point under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). With enhanced HIPC and MDRI assistance, Sierra Leone will achieve a debt profile below the...

If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot be confident that the unaided market will choose the "good" over the "bad"...