This paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 countries. We show that bivariate and trivariate models suggested by economic theory or statistical analysis are hardly better than univariate models. Phillips curve specifications...

Crises have cleansing effects: Low-quality firms face greater financial shortfalls and invest less than high-quality firms. Public liquidity support preserves the overall production capacity. However, by dampening the cleansing effects, it distorts the quality distribution and reduces the total...

Trust in policy makers fluctuates significantly over the cycle and a¤ects the transmission mechanism. Despite this it is absent from the literature. We build a monetary model embedding trust cycles; the latter emerge as an equilibrium phenomenon of a game-theoretic interaction between atomistic...

In this paper it, we have conducted a factor analysis which implied determining the international research directions that have characterized the period following the outbreak of the crisis in 2007 and 2008-2011. In this research, we used secondary data that were extracted from 342 articles,...

In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to...

Safe asset shortages can expose the economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. Selfful filling liquidity traps are associated with a counter-cyclical bond premium. Small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and...

Monetary policy is believed to have a disproportionate effect on firms, depending on their size. Financially constrained firms with limited access to capital markets are expected to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates; this is characteristic of small firms. This paper empirically...

This study investigates monetary impacts within the regional economies of the United States. It provides updated evidence on regional impacts and examines how impacts have changed over time. Using vector autoregression (VAR) methods, impacts are investigated for the overall period (1959-2003),...

As countries develop, the main driver of economic growth shifts from imitation to innovation. These two sources of growth require different policies and institutions. In particular, in this article we argue that the transition from an imitation-based to an innovation-based economy calls the old...

In this paper I add to the evidence on possible nonlinearities in the conduct of ECB monetary policy. For this purpose a nonlinear Taylor rule (threshold regression) was estimated and compared to a linear benchmark model. The estimation was carried out with output gap data computed from...