It is a well-established regularity that permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on the current account deficit. This requires that sub-components of the current account or trade balance will make the necessary adjustments to accommodate the higher energy bill of a country...

The paper investigates cyclical fluctuations in the current and financial (formerly capital) accounts of the balance of payments and major underlying components for nine industrial countries. The empirical model uses as explanatory variables domestic output growth, price inflation, real exchange...

This paper surveys the main theoretical approaches for analyzing movements in the current account of the balance of payments, from the Mundell-Fleming paradigm to modern intertemporal approaches. It discusses the main implications of these analyses for policymaking, highlighting that modern...

By using a simple intertemporal model of the current account, I show that the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance would ceteris paribus be smaller for countries with higher government spending ratios (relative to GDP) and with more limited scope for private consumption smoothing. This...

This paper presents a model of current account determination, based upon the permanent-income hypothesis. A present-value relationship among the current account, changes in net output, the exchange rate and the terms of trade is derived and the implications of such a relationship are tested...

I study the implications of productivity shocks in a model where agents observe the aggregate level of productivity but not its permanent and transitory components separately. The model''s predictions under learning differ substantially from those under full information and are in line with...

This report evaluates the role of the IMF in three capital account crises, in Indonesia (1997-98), Korea (1997-98), and Brazil (1998-99), and the lessons to be drawn from the experience. It also recommends steps aimed at making the IMF’s surveillance and program design more effective in the...